Model Development
for Risks posed by COVID-19
on U.S. Trade Supply Chain Infrastructure
(R-7 CBTS-TAMU DHS-CWMD)

Project Sponsored by
the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) 

Hosted by
the Cross-Border Threat Screening and Supply Chain Defense Center (CBTS)
a DHS Center of Excellence
at the Texas A&M University System

R7 CBTS-TAMU
DHS-CWMD
Objectives

Data-Lake System

Generate a risk-guided platform to provide access to datasets, predictive models and experts’ opinions, to produce evidence-based support on the causes and effects posed by COVID19 on the U.S. trade supply chain infrastructure

Risk Assessment Model

Formulate a comprehensive risk assessment model, mapping qualitatively participating processes needed to simulate ‘prognosis and diagnosis scenarios’ of social, economic and environmental impacts posed by COVID19 on the U.S. trade supply chain infrastructure

Risk Mitigating Strategies

Generate risk-mitigating strategies based on resiliency and sustainability supported by evidence collection and the associate risk assessment model, to address causes and effects posed by COVID19 on the U.S. trade supply chain infrastructure

Bayesian Risk
Decision-Making Framework

R-7 CBTS-TAMU DHS-CWMD
Milestones

Data-Lake System

  • One-on-one interactions with experts representing each component of the trade supply chain infrastructure.​
  • Generation of the platform for the curation and sharing of the sources of information collected.​
    • Identify available evidence and gaps of evidence from COVID19risk model: databases, predictive models, and experts and stakeholders
    • Set mechanisms for collection of available evidence (at DHS, TAMU, and at all other organizations supporting CBTS projects)
    • Collectionand characterization of available evidence: databases, predictive models, experts and stakeholders
    • Strategy for collection of non-available evidence: databases, predictive models, experts and stakeholders

Development of Risk Assessment Model

  • One-on-one interactions with experts representing each component of the trade supply chain infrastructure.​
  • Formulation of risk assessment model using Bayesian Networks.​

Risk Mitigating Strategies

  • Education of DHS and participating organizations on the risk-guided platform and the risk assessment model, which will serve as the basis to develop risk mitigating strategies.​
  • Development of a set of qualitative risk mitigating strategiesby all supporting organizations of the project, to be added to the Risk Assessment Model as risk countermeasures. Producing as a result, a Risk Assessment and Management Bayesian Network including the proposed mitigating strategies.​